5 Signs to Watch for Housing in 2013

#4 Record Low Interest Rates

Cheap money has certainly helped the housing market recover. For the past few years, average interest rates on 30-year-fixed mortgages fell to new lows. With December remaining, rates this year averaged 3.68%, lower than the average 4.45% for 2011 and 4.69% in 2010.
To be sure, rates can't stay low forever. Which is why some have worried a return to higher rates could push home prices down again. But if the Federal Reserve has its way, that won't happen any time soon. In an unusual move during its last meeting of the year, the central bank's policy-making board decided to leave rates untouched until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5% so long as inflation stays low. Which means, according to the Fed's predictions, rates will likely stay low into 2015
My Local Observations
  • I agree
  • When they do change it will happen quickly especially if unemployment improves
  • Take advantage of these rates now! 

Cheers!

Boyd

- based on an article on CNN Money Watch

5 Signs to Watch for Housing in 2013

# 3 Delinquencies fall (very slowly)

The troubled housing market was marked by record foreclosures, which is why economists closely watch the rate at which homeowners are late on their payments -- they're a precursor to foreclosures. Nationwide, the delinquency rate on mortgages peaked during the last three months of 2009 at 6.89%, after rising 12 quarters in a row from 1.49% in 2006.
As of the latest quarter, the delinquency rate dropped to 5.41%. And for 2013, it's expected to continue dropping -- albeit, slowly, to around 2%. Much of the late payments are made up of existing borrowers more than a year late on their payments, as opposed to new borrowers following stricter lending standards. Some of the biggest declines are expected in Nevada, Minnesota, California and Arizona.
My Local Observations
  • Maryland slowed up the foreclosure process
  • Foreclosures will continue to be part of our inventory
  • Short Sales (a foreclosure alternative) will be more common
Cheers!

Boyd

Based on an article from CNN Money Watch

5 Signs to Watch for Housing in 2013

#2 Watch for Rising Jobs not Rising Prices
Most of us watch home prices to gauge the health of the housing market. That was so 2012, however. Just because prices are rising doesn't necessarily mean the industry is doing any better. Next year, a better pulse of the market will be the rate of jobs growth, says Jed Kolko, chief economist with Trulia.
Cities like Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix have seen home prices surge, but it's uncertain how long that could last. Prices have risen, partly because they fell so much and also because many homes are still undergoing the foreclosure process. They're also cities in states with some of the highest rates of unemployment, which ties closely to how well people will be positioned to buy.
For 2013, Kolko has spotted 10 cities where he thinks the market will be healthiest. Congrats, Texas, you make up the bulk of them!
The 10 Healthiest Metros for Housing in 2013 
1
Houston, TX
2
San Francisco, CA
3
Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, MD
4
San Antonio, TX
5
Austin, TX
6
Seattle, WA
7
Omaha, NE-IA
8
Peabody, MA ***
9
Fort Worth, TX
10
Louisville, KY-IN
My Local Observations
  • Bethesda Rockville and Frederick - these are great Maryland Cities and I agree with the ranking.
  • As go these cities so also goes areas like Columbia, Ellicott City and surrounding towns.
  • Our regional economy despite some pullback will remain strong
  • State and city governments need to learn to control spending and attract business by providing tax incentives for companies to relocate to the area. They will come if asked right. 

Cheers!

Boyd

Based on article from CNN Money Watch

5 Signs to Watch for Housing in 2013

I just read a great summary of factors impacting our national market. I've summarized the CNN Money Article article with observations for our local market. 

# 1 - Buying Gets Less Affordable

The bust of the housing market five years ago created one of the cheapest times to buy. Across many parts of the U.S., even in some of the priciest markets including New York and Honolulu, it has become cheaper to purchase a home than rent, according to Trulia's Rent vs Buy report. Record-low interest rates on mortgages have also made buying more affordable.
That's changing, however. In 2012, prices hit bottom. Finally! While that tells us the market is healing, it could also mean buying will be less affordable in 2013. Asking prices for homes for sale rose 3.8% in November from a year earlier -- one of the biggest gains since the housing market crashed in 2007. While rents nationwide are still rising faster than home prices, the trend has reversed in 14 of Trulia's 25 biggest rental markets including Denver, Seattle and San Francisco.
My Local Observations
  • No question it's one of the cheapest times to buy. 
  • Buying cheaper has been helped by record low interest rates
  • I have seen some prices rising in specific situations but overall values remain have steady over the last 12 months.
  • Inventory remains at low levels. If this continues it will push prices. 
  • Reporting of average price increases can be misleading since the number is a combination of sales in all price ranges. In a year where more homes in a higher price category sell, the average will increase but does not necessarily indicate all home values categories have risen. Closer analysis is needed. 
  • The market is healing. Ultimately that will lead to higher prices which will lower affordability. Solution - buy now if you can! 
Cheers!

Boyd